Projects
We focus on five key areas, each constituting a separate project. Every project is underpinned by a “big idea” with practical applications.
Project 1: Power Transition in the Republic of Belarus: Risks, Forecasts, and Opportunitie
Description: For 30 years, Alexander Lukashenko has ruled Belarus without interruption. However, his time is coming to an end, coinciding with Belarus plunging into a profound external and internal political crisis. This creates unique dynamics and constraints on the process of power transition in the country, a process closely monitored by several interested parties — Russia, Ukraine, Poland, and the Baltic States.
Adding further ambiguity to the situation is Lukashenko himself, who is preparing for yet another election. How will the power transition unfold during the next five years of Lukashenko’s rule? What risks and opportunities might it entail? These are the questions addressed by the project "Power Transition in the Republic of Belarus: Specifics, Forecasts, and Opportunities."
Progress: 12%
Project 2: The Dynamics of Relations Between the Republic of Belarus and Russia: Threats to Belarusian Independence
Description: Since the declaration of independence of the Republic of Belarus, the Russian Federation has been its main economic partner and political ally. This was a deliberate choice by Belarus’ long-standing president, Alexander Lukashenko. The alliance between Russia and Belarus has always been asymmetrical, but for a long time, Lukashenko managed to maintain a “money in exchange for gestures of goodwill” arrangement with Russia.
The situation, however, has changed dramatically since 2020, and even more so since 2022. Belarus’ dependence on Russia has become all-encompassing, posing a serious threat to its sovereignty. But what is the trajectory of this growing dependency? Despite numerous public statements, both sides have carefully concealed specific data on this matter.
We conduct continuous monitoring and analysis of this relationship to provide a clearer understanding of its dynamics and implications.
Progress: 17%
Project 3: Prospects for Peaceful Transformations in Belarus: Preconditions, Stakeholders, and Strategies
Description: One of the most critical topics in Belarusian political discourse is the possibility of political change in Belarus and the potential nature of such change—evolutionary or revolutionary. We believe that revolutionary changes in Belarus are impossible for a number of reasons, but evolutionary changes are inevitable due to the current impasse in the internal political situation.
These transformations, however, are not guaranteed to be positive. Our project seeks to address the question of what form these changes might take and what actions Belarusian politicians might and should take to secure a sustainable future for the country.
Progress: 15%
Project 4: A New Eastern Policy and the Future of the Eastern European Region
Description: After the collapse of the USSR, the West failed to formulate the principles of a new Eastern policy towards the newly independent states of Eastern Europe - Russia, Belarus, Ukraine and Moldova. The old principle of focusing on Russia and viewing all other countries in the region through the prism of Russian interests and positions remained in place. Ultimately, this approach failed and contributed to a series of crisis that led to the Russian invasion in Ukraine.
While Western policymakers now clearly recognise the foreign policy mistakes made during this period, significant inertia persists in the formulation of new principles for an Eastern policy.
This project aims to analyse the miscalculations made by the West after 1989 and to develop recommendations for a new Eastern policy with a particular focus on Belarus.
Progress: 18%
Project 5: Russian "Soft Power" as a Tool for Influencing Public Opinion in Belarus and Western Perceptions of Belarus
Description: Russia's promotion of its political narratives in the EU and the US remains one of its most effective yet underestimated strategic tools. This long-running campaign has aimed to instil in the West the belief that Russia has a "historical" right to its own sphere of influence in Eastern Europe and Central Asia.
Currently, much attention is focused on the issue of Ukraine in this context, but similar influence has been and continues to be exerted in relation to Belarus. Moreover, within Belarus itself, a similar "soft power" strategy is actively employed by Russia, further undermining Belarus’s sovereignty. Despite frequent claims by the Belarusian authorities about the need to protect the country's information space from external influence, they have so far failed to shield it from the destructive influence of pro-Russian narratives.
The Belarusian opposition also does not track the political influence of the ‘Russian world’ and prefers to focus on cultural and language issues. Consequently, the scope and extent of pro-Russian political narratives remain largely unappreciated. This project is dedicated to addressing these issues.
Progress: 10%